Cotton
The May 2026 cotton contract has remained in a broader bearish pattern since the 2025 harvest, but recent price action suggests a potential shift in momentum. Futures have broken above the descending trading channel that had contained prices for several months, signaling improving technical structure. Strength in crude oil, which surged on renewed concerns about possible U.S. military action involving Iran, provided additional support to the cotton complex. Bulls are now focused on taking out the recent high at 55.38. Initial resistance is noted at 66.75, with the next upside objective at the Jan. 6 high of 67.11. Market attention is beginning to shift toward the U.S. crop outlook. USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum projected a modest increase in planted acreage this year, though upside potential may be limited given current profit margins. Meanwhile, drought concerns across portions of the southern Plains could ease if forecasted early-month rains materialize.

Corn
May corn futures have struggled to sustain upward momentum, with the $4.50 level emerging as firm resistance. That price point is likely attracting increased producer hedging and commercial selling interest. Despite this, corn continues to draw underlying support from strength in the energy sector, particularly crude oil and ethanol margins, which remain constructive for demand. At the same time, profit-taking pressure in soybeans and wheat has limited upside follow-through in corn. Technically, May futures are holding near the 100-day moving average, which continues to act as a key pivot area. The market’s reluctance to break sharply lower suggests buyers are willing to defend this level, but a decisive move above $4.50 would be needed to shift sentiment more decisively bullish. Until then, corn appears rangebound, balancing supportive energy demand against broader grain market headwinds.

Wheat
Wheat futures have faced pressure from a strengthening U.S. dollar and forecasts calling for much-needed rainfall across Midwest soft red winter wheat areas. However, ongoing dryness concerns in key hard red winter wheat regions have offered counterbalancing support, along with geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Recent sessions have been two-sided, though prices found footing as the dollar retreated from early highs. From a technical perspective, the bullish objective for May Kansas City futures stands near $5.90, corresponding to highs seen during last June’s Israel-Iran conflict. Initial support is seen at $5.64, followed closely by $5.60.

Rice
Rice futures have turned higher again after two weeks of moving sharply lower. The nearby, most active May contract found support below $10. However, the market might have a tough time moving back above $11 with pressure from a stronger U.S. dollar making the export market more difficult for U.S. rice. Weekly export sales did improve in February helped along by a 97,000 metric ton purchased by Colombia thanks to the U.S. Colombia Free Trade Agreement that allows U.S. rice to move into the country duty-free. However, abundant supplies in Asia and a growing rice industry in South America continue to keep a lid on U.S. long-grain prices, while U.S. consumers turn to imported aromatic rice in record amounts, with 30% of the rice consumed in the United States projected to be imported this marketing year. The USDA Agriculture Outlook Forum, held annually at the end of February, did not include any rice reports for the first time in recent history. A significant reduction in acres this year could have some impact on prices, but that decline of production is not unexpected.  

Soybeans
Old-crop May soybeans have added nearly $1 on the market since the early February low, and new-crop November has put nearly 80 cents back on the market. The market is clearly trending higher, with little fundamental justification for the rally. Exports continue to be disappointing, with no real indication that China will be back in the market to purchase U.S. soybeans anytime soon. Soy oil is the bright spot in the market, with prices climbing over 25% since the beginning of the year. Large speculator buying has been the real driving force of the rally. The USDA prospective plantings report will be released in about 3 weeks, and that has the potential to change the market. The April 2024 highs near $12.50 are the next clear chart resistance, so this could be a good pricing opportunity.

Cattle
The cattle charts look toppy after several weeks of moving mostly sideways to higher. Prices have plunged lower as cash prices have declined speculative liquidation have become the focus of the market. Both live cattle and feeder cattle have fallen below their 40-day moving averages. April live cattle have support just above $231, and a 50% retracement objective near $225. However, futures are currently trading at a discount to cash prices, and that will provide some support. Supplies remain tight, which will also support prices in the long-run. 

Hogs
Hog futures have found support from rising cash prices and hopes for better trade relations with China. Nearby April futures will have significant resistance near $98, while July futures are building resistance near $112.55.