Rice
Rice futures have plummeted in recent days as the rally that began in January clearly ran out of steam. The February WASDE was a mixed bag for rice. Projected imports were reduced by 1 million cwt, but projected exports were reduced by 2 million cwt, resulting in a 1 million cwt increase in ending stocks. The all-rice average on-farm price was increased by 30 cents to $12.10 on the strength of California and southern medium grain prices, while the long grain expected on-farm price was steady at $10.50. Futures could see support, however, as we know more about the size of the 2026 crop. Given current margins, other commodities look more favorable than rice and could pull acres. 

Corn
The February WASDE delivered minimal changes to the corn balance sheet. USDA raised exports by 100 million bushels to 3.3 billion, a move that was largely anticipated by the trade. Ethanol demand remains strong and appears on pace to meet USDA projections. Since the report, however, there has been little fresh fundamental news to provide direction. Corn futures have faced modest pressure this week due to spillover weakness from wheat and strength in the U.S. dollar. March futures recently snapped a brief two-day rally and closed below immediate trendline support near $4.30. The next support level is seen at $4.25, and a break below that area could open the door to a retest of the January lows just under $4.20.

Soybeans
Soybean futures surged after President Trump stated on February 4 that China was considering the purchase of an additional 8 million metric tons, or 294 million bushels, of U.S. soybeans for 2025/2026 delivery. Trading volume spiked to near-record levels following the announcement. Despite the bullish headline, USDA made no changes to the U.S. soybean balance sheet in the February WASDE. The agency did raise its estimate for Brazil’s crop, now projected at 6.6 billion bushels, reinforcing expectations for strong global supplies. Technically, the February rally has slowed, but attempts to push March futures below $11.30 have been met with buying interest. That level continues to act as near-term support as the market weighs export optimism against expanding South American production.

Wheat
Wheat has remained in a buyer’s market since mid-December, though the February WASDE offered little fundamental encouragement, with U.S. stocks edging slightly higher. This week’s rebound appears driven more by speculative bargain hunting and technically driven short covering than by fresh supply-and-demand developments. March futures have pushed above $5.50, with the next upside target near $5.60. However, declining open interest suggests much of the recent strength stems from funds exiting short positions rather than new bullish buying. Sustained gains may require stronger export demand or weather-related concerns to justify higher prices.

Cotton
Cotton futures are consolidating near contract lows. The National Cotton Council released their annual grower survey last week, reporting that U.S. cotton farmers intend to reduce cotton acres by 3.2% year over year, with 2026 acres pegged at 9 million. Arkansas, however, is expected to see a 30.3% drop in acres with farmers seeding only 362,000 acres to cotton, with corn and soybeans showing the potential for better margins — maybe not profits, but at least more likely to break even. The WASDE report was mostly unchanged, with a 200,000 bale decrease in the export projection carrying over directly into ending stocks, resulting in 200,000 bale increase to 4.4 million bales. The expected average on-farm price was reduced by a penny to 60 cents. 

Livestock and Poultry
In the February WASDE, USDA raised their forecasts for beef production on higher slaughter of steers and heifers, increased cow slaughter, and heavier weights. Pork production was also raised on higher slaughter and slightly heavier dressed weights. The broiler production estimate was lowered on recent hatchery and production data, and turkey production is estimated lower due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza related culling. Egg production was also reduced on recent production and hatchery data and HPAI related culling. Beef import forecasts were raised for 2026 due to the recent agreement between the U.S. and Argentina to increase the beef import quota. Fed-cattle prices are expected to increase during all four quarters of 2026 as demand is expected to remain solid. Broiler price forecasts were unchanged in the report, while turkey and egg prices are projected to rise due to supply concerns.