Rice
On March 31, USDA released its annual Prospective Plantings report. It’s the first report of the year to be based upon farmer surveys. Arkansas farmers are reporting their intentions to plant only 900,000 acres of long grain rice, down 24% from 2025 and down 32% from 2024. Medium grain acres are pegged at 100,000 in Arkansas, down 3% from 2025 and 17% from 2024. Sharp cuts to rice acres both in Arkansas and across the U.S. were expected, but the report came in well below the average trade estimate of 2.663 million acres. Farmers across the U.S. are planning to seed only 2.319 million acres, down 18% from 2025. Planting in Arkansas has just begun, and actual seedings will differ from the report. Arkansas farmers currently have inadequate soil moisture for planting, and the war in Iran has caused fertilizer prices to skyrocket amid shortages. We could see even more acres shift to soybeans as the days progress. Nearby May futures are bumping against resistance between $11.40 and $11.50. 

Soybeans
Farmers across the U.S. report plans to increase soybean acres by 4%. This was anticipated by the market since the cost of production is lower and the potential to at least break even with soybeans is more likely than with other crops. Arkansas farmers report intentions to plant 20% more soybeans as they move from rice, cotton and corn. Fertilizer shortages and skyrocketing prices have assuredly driven some of the shift as well, as farmers worry they won’t be able to produce high yields without fertilizer. March 1 soybean stocks, however, were up 10.2% from a year earlier. With no indications China will reenter the market for U.S. soybeans, this could limit the upside potential for prices. 

Cotton
Following a strong upside run, the cotton market faced a bearish surprise from USDA’s Prospective Plantings report. U.S. 2026 cotton acreage was estimated at 9.64 million acres, well above the pre-report average estimate of 9.23 million and even exceeding the upper end of expectations. The larger-than-anticipated acreage outlook introduced fresh supply concerns and prompted a pullback in prices. Additional pressure has come from broader macro factors, including a weaker U.S. dollar and persistently high energy prices, which continue to weigh on demand sentiment. Technically, the December 2026 contract reached a recent high of $75.60 before reversing lower following the report. The market is now testing support near $73.00, a level that previously acted as resistance and could serve as an important floor in the near term.

Corn
Corn futures initially found support from a somewhat bullish planting intentions report but quickly turned lower as broader market sentiment shifted. Comments from the Trump administration suggesting a potential easing of tensions in the Iran conflict reduced risk premium across commodity markets, contributing to the pullback. Despite the recent decline, volatility is likely to remain elevated. USDA estimated 2026 corn planted acreage at 95.3 million acres, above trade expectations but below last year’s 98.8 million acres. From a positioning standpoint, the sizable net-long held by speculative funds could add downside pressure if liquidation accelerates. Technically, new-crop December futures have fallen roughly 20 cents from recent highs, potentially forming a double-top pattern. If confirmed, this could signal further downside risk as the market recalibrates supply expectations.

Wheat
Wheat futures reversed lower after an initially supportive reaction to USDA data. March 1 stocks were reported at 1.3 billion bushels, the highest level in five years, reinforcing the narrative of ample supplies. However, the Prospective Plantings report offered a more supportive longer-term signal, with all wheat acreage estimated at 43.8 million acres, nearly one million below trade expectations and, if realized, the lowest since records began in 1919. While the acreage reduction provides some underlying support, the market continues to weigh it against current stock levels and global competition. From a technical standpoint, July 2026 futures are now approaching key support near $6.00, a level that will be critical in determining near-term price direction.

Cattle
Live cattle futures have rallied in recent weeks, with most-active June now testing resistance at the previous high of $244. This market continues to be driven by supply-side concerns. The March 20 cattle on feed report showed a total of 11.5 million head on feed on March 1, 2026. That’s down slightly from the 2025 total. February placements were 1.61 million head, 4% above the previous year, while February marketings were down 7% from 2025.