Corn
Corn futures opened the shortened week soft but managed an impressive reversal higher, bucking weakness in soybeans and wheat. December futures held firm at the 50-day moving average near $4.14, marking the first consecutive closes above that level since late May. Technically, the next upside target is the 100-day moving average near $4.31, which hasn’t been tested in over a month. Fundamentals remain mixed. Crop condition ratings are historically strong, with pollination progressing under generally favorable conditions. Traders, however, remain cautious, weighing strong yield potential against the possibility of weather-related risk later in the season. Until new headlines emerge, technical levels are likely to drive trade direction in the near term.

Soybeans
Soybean futures slipped sharply to start the week, with November contracts retreating to chart support near $10.40. The market has repeatedly failed to sustain rallies above $10.50, as both yield potential and export demand remain uncertain. China continues to favor South American supplies, leaving U.S. exporters without the typical midsummer buying boost. On the technical side, November soybeans face resistance at $10.77 and support at the 20-day moving average near $10.33. USDA’s latest report added pressure, with crop condition ratings dropping 4 points to 65 percent good to excellent, the lowest level in weeks. Without stronger demand or weather-related stress, rallies may continue to encounter selling pressure.

Wheat
Wheat futures erased last week’s modest rally, giving back two sessions of gains as traders returned from the long weekend. The pullback underscored that recent strength was more about short covering than a shift in market fundamentals. Global supplies remain ample after better-than-expected harvests across the Northern Hemisphere. Markets now turn their attention to planting of the 2026 winter crop in the U.S. and Europe, along with developing conditions in the Southern Hemisphere. Weather in Argentina and Australia will be watched closely in the months ahead, as risks there could inject volatility. For now, Kansas City December wheat shows resistance near $5.24 and support at $5.06. With demand soft and supplies steady, wheat futures may continue to trend sideways to lower.

Rice
Rice futures are trading near their five-year low point, with November hovering between support at $11.72 and resistance at $12.25. November has managed to close above $12 for the past couple of trading sessions, buoyed by carryover strength from soybeans and corn. However, a close below $12 would signal that bears are ready to make another run at the contract low. Harvest pressure could turn the market lower as more of the crop moves to market. Despite the slow start, Arkansas harvest is currently at 26%, ahead of the 5-year average of 15%. Nationwide 33% of the crop is harvested, with Louisiana and Texas nearing completion. The 71% of the remaining crop in Arkansas is rated good to excellent, while 76% of the U.S. crop is rated good to excellent. Export demand remains weak, with weekly sales continuing to disappoint. Supplies from Asia — especially India — and South America are proving to be tough competition and keeping world prices low. 

Cotton
Cotton futures are trading at or near contract-low levels. A rally last week was cut short when most-active December ran into trendline resistance and made a new three-week low on Friday. The August low of 65.88 cents remains the downside target for bears. Weaker crude oil prices, and therefore cheaper polyester prices, are adding pressure. As we move into harvest, the crop outlook is still uncertain. Cooler temps could hurt yield prospects in the southern plains, but rain in Texas could improve prospects there and lessen the likelihood of abandonment. Nationwide, 51% of the crop is rated good to excellent. In Arkansas, 77% is rated good to excellent. Export sales and shipments have been mostly supportive recently, with Vietnam the leading buyer. China, once our biggest customer by far, is still not buying U.S. cotton.

Cattle
Cattle futures continue to trend higher, with no sign yet that the market has reached a top. Both live cattle and feeder cattle futures made new contract highs and a new all-time high on a front month basis last week. The market is being supported by surging beef values, with packer margins estimated to be firmly in the black despite the high cattle prices. The southern border remains closed to cattle trade, with fear of New World screwworm making its way into the United States.
  
Hogs
Hog futures have been supported by strength from cattle markets, with prices moving higher again after trending mostly sideways during July and August. October is now moving toward a retest of the contract high of $97.05, and the December and February contracts have moved to new highs. Pork exports are down 3.5% year over year, and packer margins have weakened.