Rice
Rice futures continue to trend lower, setting new six-year lows on a nearly daily basis. Harvest pressure has certainly been a factor in recent weeks as farmers finish the harvest with lots of last year’s rice still in the bins. The market is currently aligned with wheat futures, which isn’t always the case but seems to indicate that global food supplies are perceived as adequate. Rice supplies, both domestic and global, are abundant and potentially burdensome, adding downward pressure. There are reports that Thai prices are currently at a nine-year low. In the Aug. 1 stocks report, USDA raised its stocks estimate by 3.4 million cwt to 53.9 million cwt, the largest rice stocks since 1987 and up 35% from the previous year.  The expected season-average on-farm price was lowered by $1/cwt from the August to the September report, with the all-rice average now pegged at $13.20/cwt and long grain at $12/cwt. The November contract currently has downtrending resistance below $11. USDA will not be releasing any new reports (exports, WASDE, etc.) until the shutdown is over, so there may not be anything to move the market out of the current trend for a while. 

Corn
December corn futures extended losses for the fourth straight session, slipping to their lowest level since late August. The advancing U.S. harvest, now estimated at roughly 46% to 50% complete, is adding near-term pressure, particularly as early yield reports continue to meet or exceed expectations in parts of the Corn Belt. Weakness in the crude oil market is also dampening ethanol demand prospects, compounding bearish sentiment. The ongoing U.S.–China trade rift continues to weigh on global grain demand, with Chinese corn values sliding to multi-year lows. Technically, December corn briefly tested the 50-day moving average near $4.15 but failed to close above it. A sustained move below $4.10 could open the door to the $4.00–$4.05 support range, while a rebound above the 50-day average would be needed to shift momentum back toward neutral.

Soybeans
November soybean futures have traded lower in three of the past four sessions, again approaching key psychological support near $10.00. Weakness in soybean oil, linked to crude oil prices breaking below $58 per barrel, has kept overall sentiment defensive. Soybean meal’s slight firmness has provided little offset. Persistent uncertainty in U.S.–China trade relations remains a dominant market factor. Both nations are preparing to impose new port fees, which could elevate freight costs and hinder export competitiveness. From a technical standpoint, November beans have repeatedly found buyers near $10.00, but failure to hold this level could prompt a test of $9.90. Resistance remains firm at $10.75. Any signs of stronger export demand or confirmation of yield losses could stabilize prices in the short term.

Wheat
Wheat futures posted new contract lows across Kansas City and Chicago markets, with Minneapolis nearing the same. Despite strong export sales and tighter U.S. balance sheet expectations, global competition, particularly from Russia, remains intense, keeping rallies in check. Fundamentally, cash wheat prices appear deeply oversold, but technical weakness continues to dominate trade behavior. In Kansas City, March futures remain near new contract lows, with resistance around $5.20 and support at $5.00. A recovery above resistance would be the first signal of short-covering interest, but until then, wheat is likely to follow corn’s lead and remain rangebound with a bearish bias.

Cotton
Cotton futures have been trending lower for about a month, but recent sessions have seen erratic trade and sharp spikes to new lows. Harvest pressure is obviously a factor, and weakness in crude oil futures is resulting in competition from cheaper synthetics. We won’t have new reports until the shutdown is over, but there is little indication that demand has improved. A trade deal with China should result in improvement here, but there is no new information suggesting a deal is close. From a technical perspective, there is little support on the charts with December testing the waters below 63 cents/lb. The continuation charts show the potential to test pandemic lows below 50 cents/lb.

Cattle 
Cattle futures have rocketed to new highs in recent sessions after a brief consolidation period. Friday saw bullish technical signals as both live and feeder contracts posted outside days to the upside, and many contracts have now moved to new contract highs. Mexico continues to confirm new cases of New World Screwworm close to the U.S. border, postponing any possible reopening of the U.S. border to cattle imports from Mexico. Supplies here are already tight, and eliminating a trading partner will keep them that way. 

Hogs
Lean hog futures appear to have topped in late September, with December falling nearly $8 from the high of $91.52 set on September 26. The next level of support is $81. Weakness in cash hog and wholesale pork prices are adding downward pressure.