Rice
Rice futures fell this week in reaction to the first WASDE estimates for the 2025/26 crop, indicating a continuation of bearish fundamentals for the remainder of the crop year. All rice ending stocks are projected to climb from 39.8 million cwt in 2023/24 to 45 million in 2024/25 and 47.5 million in 25-26. Long-grain stocks for the three years are pegged at 19.3 million, 35.3 million, and 37.5 million, respectively. The all rice on-farm average price for 2025/26 is pegged at $13.20, down from $15.20 in 2024/25 and $17.30 in 2023/24. The long-grain price is pegged at $12.00 for 2025/26, down from $14.20 for 2024/25 and $15.90 for 2023/24. July futures charted the lowest close in five years on Tuesday after the release of the report.

After a slow start, Arkansas farmers have now surpassed the five-year planting progress average of 78%, with 86% of the crop seeded as we approach the crop insurance final planting date of May 25. In the first week of crop condition ratings, 73% of the crop is rated good to excellent.

Corn
The May WASDE offered a mixed outlook for corn. Old-crop 2024/25 ending stocks were trimmed by 50 million bushels to 1.415 billion on stronger export demand — slightly below market expectations. For 2025/26, USDA projects a record crop at 15.82 billion bushels, with average yields at 181 bpa and planted area the highest in over a decade. Despite the large crop, new-crop ending stocks are forecast at 1.80 billion bushels, over 200 million below expectations. Global corn stocks are expected to fall nearly 10 million metric tons to 278 MMT, sharply below the trade average. The average farm price for 2025/26 is forecast at $4.20 per bushel, down 15 cents. September corn futures have been in the red more days than not due to heavy supply pressure.

Soybeans
Soybeans saw slightly bullish adjustments in the May report. Old-crop 2024/25 ending stocks were lowered 25 million bushels to 350 million on increased exports, aligning with the low end of expectations. The 2025 crop is forecast at 4.34 billion bushels, with a record yield of 52.5 bpa. Ending stocks for 2025/26 are projected at 295 million bushels — 65 million below trade estimates. U.S. crush is expected to grow, particularly for meal, while biofuel usage for bean oil was revised down 150 million pounds. Globally, ending stocks are seen at 124.3 MMT, up slightly but still below expectations. The average farm price is projected at $10.25 per bushel. November soybean futures have broken out higher after the past few weeks of consolidation. Prices are approaching early-February highs, which might cause some resistance.

Wheat
Wheat saw the most bearish tone in the May WASDE. Old-crop 2024/25 ending stocks were trimmed 5 million bushels to 841 million on higher food use, but still in line with expectations. The 2025 crop is forecast at 1.921 billion bushels, 35 million above estimates. Winter wheat output is up 31 million bushels from last year, led by increases in HRW and SRW. New-crop 2025/26 ending stocks are pegged at 923 million bushels, a seven-year high and 60 million above the trade average. Global stocks were little changed at 266 MMT but came in slightly above expectations. The season-average price is forecast at $5.30 per bushel, down $0.20 from last year. July Chicago wheat futures continues to struggle, putting in a recent low of $5.06.

Cotton
Despite some wide swings, cotton futures are trading in a mostly sideways pattern after setting new lows in early April. The WASDE report provided a somewhat bearish outlook for the 2025/26 crop. Despite expected plantings 9.87 million acres, down from 11.18 million in 2024/25, the production estimate is higher year-over-year at 14.50 million bales thanks to a lower abandonment projection. The trend in ending stocks is still higher, as they are expected to climb to 5.2 million bales, up 400,000 bales from 2024/25 and 2.05 million bales from 2023/24. The average on-farm price for 2024/25 is projected to be 63 cents and 62 cents for 2025/26.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
In the May WASDE, USDA provided its first projections for 2026. Total red meat and poultry production for 2026 is projected to be lower than 2025. Tighter cattle supplies, fewer available fed steers and heifers due to import restrictions on cattle from Mexico, and reduced slaughter of cattle. Pork and broiler production are forecast higher and will partially offset the reduction in beef production. Milk production is forecast to increase in 2026 as the milk cow herd expands. The all-milk price forecast for 2026 is projected to be $21.15/cwt.