Cotton
Cotton futures remain under pressure amid disappointing demand. Weaker crude oil prices add pressure as they result in cheaper synthetic fibers that compete with cotton for market share. The downside is limited by prospects for a smaller crop. At the annual Outlook Forum, USDA projected U.S. planted acres to be down almost 11% to 10 million acres. Assuming average abandonment of 16% and a trendline yield of 833 lbs/acre, USDA is projecting all-cotton production in the U.S. to be 14.6 million bales. This projection, however, is not based on producer surveys. That report will come at the end of the month. The National Cotton Council annual survey forecasted an even smaller crop, with just 9.6 million acres planted, down 14.4% from 2024. The March WASDE balance sheet was unchanged, but USDA did lower its expected on-farm average price by half a cent to 63 cents/pound. On March 18, USDA announced that signup is open for the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, which was approved by Congress late last year. Cotton farmers will receive a payment of $84.74/acre on 2024 planted acreage, subject to payment limits. Prevented planted acres will receive a 50% payment. The first tranche of payments will be made on 85% of certified acreage.

Rice
Nearby May futures are attempting to confirm a bottom in the market but need to close above $14 to confirm the signals. The bearish fundamental situation, however, is likely to limit the upside. In the March WASDE, USDA raised the long-grain carryout by 1 million hundredweight from last month, meaning the carryout estimate is now 35.3 million cwt, up from 19.3 million only a year ago. The increase was due to a 1 million hundredweight increase in the import estimate. Despite that, though, USDA raised its season-average expected price forecast by 20 cents to $14.20/cwt. On March 18, USDA announced that signup is open for the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, which was approved by Congress late last year. Rice farmers will receive a payment of $76.94/acre on 2024 planted acreage, subject to payment limits. Prevented planted acres will receive a 50% payment. The first tranche of payments will be made on 85% of certified acreage.

Corn
The latest WASDE report offered a neutral-to-positive outlook for the corn market. U.S. ending stocks for 2025 remained steady at 1.54 billion bushels, slightly above expectations by 25 million bushels. Globally, corn stocks were reduced by 1.4 million metric tons (mmt) to 288.9 mmt. While production forecasts for Brazil and Argentina were unchanged, Brazil’s export projection was lowered by 2 mmt due to increased domestic consumption. Additionally, China’s corn import forecast dropped by 2 mmt to 8 mmt, which could impact demand from major exporters, including the U.S. If global demand weakens further, U.S. exports may face additional pressure. New crop September 2025 futures have been rangebound between $4.40 and $4.50, with the primary resistance level at $4.50. Market activity remains quiet as traders await the next major USDA data release on March 31, which will include the March 1 Stocks report and the Prospective Plantings report. Further uncertainty stems from former President Donald Trump’s statements on April 2 regarding potential new tariffs, which could influence trade relations with key partners and weigh on the market.

Soybeans
The March WASDE report was largely neutral-to-positive for soybeans. U.S. ending stocks held steady at 380 million bushels, in line with expectations. However, global stocks saw a surprising 3 mmt decline, bringing the total to 121.4 mmt. While Brazil and Argentina’s production estimates were unchanged, China’s soybean crush estimate increased by 2 mmt to 105 mmt, signaling stronger demand from the world’s largest importer. This could offer price support for soybeans, benefiting U.S. exporters and other major producers. New crop November soybeans continue to trade within a narrow range, struggling to break through downtrend resistance. Market movement remains limited as traders seek stronger catalysts.

Wheat
Wheat saw a more bearish outlook, with U.S. ending stocks rising by 25 million bushels to 819 million, surpassing expectations. This increase was driven by a 10-million bushel rise in imports and a 15-million bushel drop in exports. Globally, wheat stocks grew by 2.5 mmt to 260 mmt, mainly due to a 2.1 mmt increase in Australian production, which also boosted its export forecast by 1 mmt. Meanwhile, Russian exports were lowered by 0.5 mmt to 45 mmt, and China’s import forecast was cut by 1.5 mmt to 6.5 mmt. New-crop winter wheat has rallied, breaking near-term resistance at $5.80. However, as in previous rallies, speculative selling may limit further gains.

Livestock and Poultry
In the monthly Supply/Demand report, USDA raised the forecast for red meat and poultry production for 2025 on higher beef and chicken production. Lower pork and turkey production forecasts partially offset those increases. USDA will release the Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report on March 27, providing more information about production for the remainder of the year. Egg prices are forecast to decline due to reduced demand after HPAI-related reductions in production have resulted in record-high egg prices. The milk production forecast for 2025 was lower on expected output per cow. The all-milk price estimate for 2025 was lowered to $21.60/cwt.