Rice
Rice futures are trending sharply lower, with September setting a new contract low of $12.28 on Tuesday. Failure to hold above that support could signal a retest of $11.91, which is support on the continuation chart and a would put rice at a five-year-low on a front-month basis if realized. The crop is in relatively good shape, with 74% of the Arkansas crop rated good to excellent, and 79% of the U.S. crop rated good to excellent. The monthly WASDE was a mixed bag, but overall somewhat bullish. Lower 2025 production, down 9.4 million cwt from the June report and now pegged at 205 million cwt, was partially offset by higher beginning stocks of 47 million cwt and lower exports of 93 million cwt. Domestic use was also reduced by 4 million cwt, resulting in a 1.9 million cwt decrease in the ending stocks projection, which is now estimated to be 44.7 million cwt. The average on-farm price was raised by $0.50 to $14.00 for all rice and $13.00 for long grain. 

Corn
September corn futures remain under pressure after opening the month with a gap lower and have yet to regain lost ground. Prices appear to have found support around the July 14 low of $3.92, with recent sessions hovering near the $4.00 mark. While several new export deals have been announced, the market reaction has been muted — largely due to forecasts calling for cooler and wetter conditions across the Corn Belt. The latest Crop Progress report maintained the good-to-excellent rating at 74 percent for the third straight week, the highest for this point in the season since 2016. These favorable crop conditions, combined with improving weather, have led to speculation about record yields. A prominent farm advisory group recently suggested national corn yields could approach 190 bushels per acre, though such projections remain early. On the technical side, a push back above the 20-day moving average around $4.04 could open the door to higher targets, including $4.10.

Soybeans
Soybean futures are showing renewed strength, supported in part by optimism surrounding newly announced trade deals. Despite China continuing to source the majority of its soybeans from Brazil — reportedly 87 percent in June — there are positive signals on the diplomatic front. U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen is scheduled to meet with Chinese officials in Sweden to discuss trade relations, which could offer market support. November soybean futures have climbed above both the 20-day and 100-day moving averages, a bullish technical signal. Adding to the strength is a slight drop in crop condition ratings, with the good-to-excellent category slipping two points to 68 percent. From a technical perspective, a close above $10.34 could encourage buyers to target $10.40 and the recent high of $10.43. On the downside, watch the 20-day moving average near $10.22 for support.

Wheat
Wheat futures have firmed on tightening global supplies and declining crop conditions in key growing regions. A drop in U.S. spring wheat ratings and reduced Russian wheat availability due to slowed farmer sales have helped fuel the rally. However, with the U.S. winter wheat harvest now 73% complete, the pace of gains may begin to moderate. One bright spot is a new agreement with Bangladesh to purchase 700,000 metric tons of U.S. wheat annually. While U.S. wheat remains competitively priced, new-crop Russian supplies are beginning to enter the global market. Technically, wheat continues to trade in a sideways pattern, with indicators leaning neutral to bearish.

Cotton
Cotton futures are having trouble building upward momentum. New-crop December has resistance at 69 cents that is capping the market for the time being, resulting in trading in a narrow band between 69 cents and support at 67cents. The crop is in relatively good shape as Texas has had an unusually wet season, with 57% in good to excellent condition. In Arkansas, 70% of the crop is in good to excellent condition. The June 30 acreage report provided the market a bearish surprise with a higher-than-expected planted acreage estimate of 10.12 million acres and 8.66 million harvested acres. Production was pegged at 600,000 bales higher than the June estimate at 14.60 million bales. The average on-farm price was unchanged at $0.62/lb. 

Livestock
The July WASDE forecasted lower beef, turkey, and egg production and higher broiler and pork production for the remainder of 2025. The cattle price forecast was lowered slightly based on reported data for the second quarter. No changes were made to the forecasts for the remainder of the year. Hog prices are expected to rise due to lower projected beef supplies throughout the remainder of 2025. Recent price strength has resulted in projections for higher broiler prices throughout the rest of the year.