Cotton
Cotton futures are attempting to confirm a bottom after trending lower for months. The market got a boost after the National Cotton Council released results of its annual planting intentions. Farmers reported plans to plant only 9.6 million acres, down 14.5% from 2024 and a 10-year low. Arkansas farmers plan to plant 604,000 acres, down 7% from last year. While prices for all crops are lower than they were a year ago, cotton has declined the most. Many farmers will move acres to other commodities, primarily corn. The monthly WASDE had few changes, but the average on-farm expected price was lowered to 63.5 cents/pound. Last week’s exports were disappointing at 244,700 bales, down 14% from the previous 4-week average. With new tariffs looming over the market and set to take effect on March 1, it will be tough to build upward momentum in the market.  The American Relief Act, passed late last year, is estimated to provide payments near $87/acre for cotton, but that could be adjusted as the rules are written. Payments are expected by mid-to-late March.

Rice
March rice futures are attempting to confirm a bottom after taking out previous support at $13.70 and setting a new low of $13.37. Ample supplies are available around the world, particularly in Asia, where stockpiles in India grew to 67.6 MMT during their export ban. Poor milling quality of the U.S. crop is also creating a difficult situation for U.S. exporters, and food aid accounts for 2% to 5% of U.S. exports annually. What seems to be an end to food aid for the foreseeable future will also make it difficult for this market to recover. Ending stocks are now projected to be 47 million cwt, up from 39.8 million just last year. The average on-farm price estimate for long grain in this month’s WASDE was lowered to $14. The American Relief Act, passed late last year, is projected to provide payments near $69/acre for rice. The program will be based on planted acreage, with prevented planted acres receiving a 50% payment. More information should be available soon as USDA publishes the rules and enacts the program. Payment limits will apply.

Corn
Corn futures opened the week strong, posting strong gains on robust export demand and concerns about South American productions. Old crop March and new crop December set new nine-month highs. December posted a bullish outside day, trading as high as $4.77½. March closed at $5.02 on Tuesday, the first time the lead month has topped $5 in 16 months. Exports are on pace to far exceed the current USDA estimates. There is a lot of uncertainty, though, about what impact tariffs could have on the market. There is obviously great risk to ag commodities, as we have seen in the past. However, new trade agreements could lead to increased exports if and when they are established.

Soybeans
The soybean market is facing price volatility. Nearby contracts have broken through uptrending support, but the trend is mostly sideways. Fundamental factors impacting the market are the weather in South America and at home as U.S. farmers make planting decisions. With current price levels, however, it is likely that farmers will move acres out of soybeans and into corn. Exports remain solid, and USDA is projecting a carryout of 376 million bushels. That is a stocks-to-use ratio of 8.6%, which is relatively low. USDA lowered its on-farm price estimate another dime to $10.10.

Wheat
Chicago wheat futures continue to rally, with prices gapping higher this week. March has tough resistance at the October high of $6.40 that could limit the upside potential. The market is being supported by strength in corn and concerns of winterkill in the U.S. crop, with extreme temperatures affecting large parts of the growing region. Weekly exports were down sharply last week, and uncertainty about the war in Ukraine and tariffs could also limit the upside potential.

Livestock, Poultry and Dairy
In the monthly WASDE, USDA raised its 2025 beef production forecast on a larger calf crop and a smaller decline in cattle outside feedlots. Pork production was raised as higher expected weights offset lower slaughter numbers. Broiler production was unchanged and turkey production was decreased, with a slower slaughter pace expected due to Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza related culling. 2025 milk production was reduced due to expected lower cow inventories. The all milk price forecast for 2025 was lowered to $22.60/cwt.