Corn
Corn prices are searching for a level to boost export demand, but without any immediate threatening weather forecasts, this trend is unlikely to change. The September 2024 contract hit a new low, while the December 2024 contract fell to its lowest in 3½ years. USDA is not expected to alter its new crop yield forecast in this month’s WASDE. On Monday, the USDA reported that 68% of the corn crop is rated good to excellent, up one percentage point, with 9% rated poor to very poor. On the September chart, resistance is at the 20-day moving average of $4.34, with support at the recent low of $3.92 and the lower Bollinger Band at $3.85.

Soybean
New crop November 2024 soybeans are continuing to hit new lows. Warmer weather is forecasted, potentially aiding crop development. This week’s crop progress report showed a one percentage point improvement, with 68% of the crop rated good to excellent and 8% poor to very poor. In Arkansas, 74% of the crop is rated good to excellent, with 5% poor to very poor. Additionally, 58% of Arkansas’ crop is setting pods, 12 percentage points ahead of last year and 28 percentage points above the five-year average. The November chart shows resistance at the 20-day moving average of $11.23 and support at the recent low and lower Bollinger Band at $10.77.

Wheat
Weakness in corn and soybean markets, along with increased Russian production reported by SovEcon, has pressured wheat prices. With the U.S. harvest nearly complete, traders are focusing on international production and export sales. Weekly export sales surpassed expectations, with total commitments at 254 million bushels, compared to 170 million at this time last year.

Cotton
The USDA’s recent increase in planted acres, reported on June 28, will be reflected in Friday’s USDA supply-demand tables in the July WASDE, likely raising projected production from 16.00 million bales to around 17.6 million bales. This could result in ending stocks of approximately 5.7 million bales, the highest since 2019/20. On Monday, the USDA’s weekly crop progress report showed a decline in the good to excellent rating to 45%, down from 50% last week and below the five-year average of 48%. For the December 2024 contract, chart support is at 70.00 cents, with resistance at 72.00 cents.

Rice
The September 2024 rice contract has significantly declined in recent weeks. After peaking at $15.83 in mid-June, prices fell for 11 out of 12 days, finding support at $14.54, a level last seen in April. Resistance appears at the 20-day moving average of $15.32. The overall rice condition is down one percentage point from last week and five percentage points from a year ago, now at 81% good to excellent. In Arkansas, the rice condition remains unchanged week over week at 68% good to excellent.

Forestry
Second quarter timber prices show stability for pine logs and chip-n-saw, staying within first quarter ranges. Pine pulp prices increased significantly from $0.50-$1.00/ton in the first quarter to $2.00/ton in the second quarter. Miscellaneous products rose from $30-$33/ton to $35/ton. In the Southwest, pine logs dropped from $23-$24/ton to $20/ton, while pine pulp doubled from $1.00/ton to $2.00/ton. For the second quarter oak logs are at $68/ton and hardwood pulp is at $10/ton. Overall this is indicating mixed stability and increases, reflecting higher demand.

Livestock
In cattle, late cash trade in the South is steady at $190, with the five-area weekly average slightly down to $194.57 from $194.89 last week. Lean cow beef prices reached record highs, 127% above last year, driven by strong ground beef demand. USDA estimated cattle slaughter at 116,000 head, totaling 475,000 for the week, up from 459,091 a year ago. Average dressed cattle weight was 846 pounds, up from 817 a year ago, with beef production estimated at 436.4 million pounds, slightly down from 437.5 million a year ago. Hogs experienced a choppy week, with strong export sales but weak cash prices. Carcass weights are four pounds above last year. USDA estimated hog slaughter at 456,000 head, totaling 1.885 million for the week, up from 1.798 million a year ago. Pork production last week was 438.2 million pounds, down from 521.5 million the previous week but up from 409.7 million a year ago. Pork export sales for the week were 59,100 tonnes, exceeding the four-week average of 30,200 tons.