Rice
The September Crop Production and Supply/Demand reports were bullish for rice futures. U.S. all-rice production was lowered again and is now pegged at 165.144 million hundredweight, and ending stocks for the marketing year were lowered to 30.9 million bushels down 22% from the previous year. That was due to a 41 lb/acre cut in expected yield. Average expected yield nationwide is now pegged at 7,586 lb/ac. In Arkansas, the average yield is projected to be 7,500 lb/acre. Harvest is well underway, but a bit behind the average pace. In Arkansas, 24% of the crop is in the bins compared to a 5-year average of 33%. USDA raised the expected on-farm price of long and medium grain rice by another 50 cents to $16.50 and $17.00 respectively. Futures rallied on Friday in reaction to news that India will limit exports due to concerns about a small crop, and the rally continued in reaction to Monday’s reports. November is now in position to challenge resistance at $17.95 ½.

Cotton
The story for cotton was very different, as USDA raised the 2022 U.S. crop forecast by 1.262 million bales despite a lower projected yield per acre. USDA raised harvested cotton acres by 747,000 acres, including 145,000 acres in Arkansas. Both FSA certified acres and Boll Weevil Eradication enrollment suggested Arkansas acres were significantly underestimated by NASS, and this correction reflects that. Across the country, planted acreage was raised from 12.48 million to 13.79 million acres. Exports were raised to 12.6 million bales, and the U.S. on-farm average price dropped a penny to 96 cents/pound. Cotton futures have weathered the bearish news fairly well thanks to carryover support from other commodities. The market is trading in a narrow sideways pattern currently, with support is above $1.01 and resistance is near $1.08.

Soybeans
The September reports held bullish surprises for soybeans. The harvested acreage projection was cut by 600,000 acres, and the projected yield was cut by 1.4 bushels per acre. The estimate of a national average yield of 50.5 bushels per acre shocked the market and was a full bushel below the average trade guesstimate. The net result was a 3.4% cut to the total production estimate since the August report. The USDA 22/23 carryout is now pegged at 200 million bushels. The average on-farm price was unchanged from the August report, and remains $14.35/bushel. November beans rallied on Monday in reaction to the report. So far, the market has been unable to close above $15.

Corn
USDA lowered their U.S. crop and carryout forecasts for corn, too. A 1.2 million acre cut in the planted acreage estimate was a surprise. It was partially offset by an increase in the average yield estimate to 172.5 bushels per acre, but supply estimates were reduced more than use estimates, resulting in a projected carryout of 1.2 billion bushels. The season-average corn price was raised 10 cents to $6.75 per bushel.

Livestock and Poultry
In the August Supply/Demand report, USDA raised their red meat and poultry production estimates, with higher beef, pork and broiler forecasts were partially offset by lower turkey production. Beef production was raised on higher expected slaughter numbers for the second half of the year. Lower expected carcass weights partially offset the increase. The story for pork production was the same, higher slaughter numbers were partially offset by lower carcass weights. That speaks to herd liquidation in the face of high feed costs.

Broiler production was raised on current slaughter data and higher eggs set and chicks placed. Turkey production was slightly lower on slaughter and hatchery data.

The beef import forecast for 2022 was lowered on July trade data and expectations for slower imports, and the export forecast was unchanged. Pork import and export forecasts were both lowered.

The national average price for steers was raised slightly to $142.80/cwt, while the national average for barrows and guilts was lowered $2.50 to $71.30/cwt. The national average for broilers was projected to be $1.434/lb, and the turkey price was pegged at $1.513/lb.

Dairy
The 2022 milk production forecast was lowered this month in the Supply/Demand report. Milk cow numbers have been reduced, and slower growth in cow numbers is expected through the rest of the year and into 2023. Output-per-cow is forecast to increase at a slightly more rapid pace in 2022. The forecasts for butter prices and nonfat dry milk prices were raised slightly on current price strength. Both Class III and Class IV prices were raised, reflecting changes in their component values. The 2022 all milk price forecast was raised to $25.45/cwt.