Rice
Rice harvest is just beginning in Arkansas, with USDA reporting 4% of the crop in the bins as of August 28. Nationwide, 18% of the crop has been harvested, mostly in Louisiana and Texas. The market is still worried about the crop here and abroad. The hot, dry summer could have an impact on field and milling yields in Arkansas. It is being reported that India is considering rice export restrictions since the acreage is smaller due to a disappointing monsoon season there. Drought in rice growing regions in China and flooding in Bangladesh are also a potential factor. In the August Supply/Demand report, USDA lowered their rice supply estimate by 4.1 million tons to 697.3 million metric tons. World use is forecast at a record high of 518.7 million metric tons. Projected 22/23 world ending stocks are now forecast to be 178.5 million metric tons. Technically, rice futures opened the week by trading in an extremely wide range on Monday as traders roll positions out of September and into the November contract. November came within striking distance of previous support of $16.80 before turning higher. Resistance currently is at $17.82. A close above that level could signal further upside and a possible retest of the $18.15 ½ high.

Cotton
December cotton futures are seemingly locked into a sideways pattern between support at $1.11 and resistance at $1.20. A close below that support and the market could move quickly to close the chart gap to $1.08. 34% of the crop now has open bolls, and recent heavy rains in the South have the market concerned about the quality of the crop there.  Only 34% of the crop nationwide is in good to excellent condition. 36% of the crop is in poor to very poor condition. In Texas, 53% of the crop is in poor to very poor condition, and many of those acres are expected to be abandoned. Demand remains somewhat weak given high prices and uncertainty about the economy in China.

Corn
New crop corn futures are in a short-term uptrend as the old marketing year comes to a close.  December has now completed at 50% retracement of the summer’s losses. Monday’s gap higher opened the door for a potential retest of resistance at $7. Support is building in the $6.31 area and longer-term support is near $6. Recent strength comes from concerns about U.S. corn yields. USDA has pegged average yields at 175.4, which is below the trendline yield. Private estimates are coming in below the USDA projection. USDA says 54% of the crop is in good to excellent condition.

Soybeans
Favorable weather for crop development and higher-than-expected private crop estimates have pressured soybean futures. While the market is trending higher, gains have been tempered by ideas that yields will be solid. The current USDA estimate is 51.9 bushels per acre. USDA is not currently publishing export data due to system issues, and without the demand piece of the puzzle, the market is lacking direction. November beans have uptrending support near $14. Resistance begins at last week’s high of $14.84 ½.

Cattle
Cattle futures have turned lower in the past two weeks. The August Cattle-on-Feed report pegged July feedlot placements at 102% of a year earlier. That was negative for prices in the short-term, as it means higher slaughter rates soon and was above trade expectations. It reflects the movement of cattle as farmers face drought conditions and longer-term will contribute to tighter supplies. October futures look to have topped at $146.25. The short-term uptrend has been violated and prices are expected to work lower. There is some chart support around $141.

Hogs
Recent chart action in hogs has been extremely negative. The December contract charted a huge bearish reversal in Mid-August after setting a new high of $91.35. The market has found some support at $81.25 for the time being. Poor packer operating margins and weak exports have contributed to the downturn. The composite pork cutout value fell more than 14% last week, and the pork belly component was down more than 27%.  The July 31 cold storage report showed frozen pork stocks 20% above a year ago, and pork belly stocks 53% above the previous year.