Cattle
The April Cattle on Feed report was bearish for prices and resulted in sharp losses to start the week. Released on Friday, April 22, the report showed March feedlot placements of 99.6% of the year ago total. Pre-report estimated ranged from 87%-96% with an average of only 92.2%. The April 1 feedlot inventory was pegged at 101.7% of last year, while trade estimates averaged 100.4%. This indicates that supplies of market-ready cattle will be more than adequate into fall. However, supplies of feeder cattle outside of feedlots is down sharply from last year, indicating placements will be down in the near-term. The June contract failed at resistance at $140 before turning lower Friday, while the October contract charted a bearish key reversal after setting a new contract high of $147.50.  The market gapped lower on Monday and was not able to recover, charting losses of $3 or more across the board, giving the charts a very toppy look. October feeders have recovered somewhat in recent weeks, but strength in corn prices and delayed planting continue to be a factor. Support is at he contract low of $175.50.

Hogs
Hog futures are under pressure again after recovering a bit early in the month. Technically, June futures appear to have topped on March 31, charting a huge bearish reversal after setting a new contract high of $127.32 ½. The market has violated long-term uptrending support this week, and need to hold above support at the $112 level. Wholesale pork prices are unchanged from a year ago, while the CME cash hog index is down around $4 from last year. Exports are down significantly, keeping a lid on prices.

Cotton
Cotton futures charts are looking like a top has been put in. The market set a new 11-year high on a front-month basis on April 14, before moving lower every day since. There has been pressure from losses in crude oil prices, and export sales have been weak as Covid lockdowns are increasing in China and that country has left the market for the time being. Arkansas cotton acres are expected climb 8% this year, to 520,000 acres, while the U.S. crop is pegged at 12.234 million acres, up 9% from a year ago. Production could be impacted by drought in the Southwest. Nationwide, cotton farmers have seeded 12% of the crop, which is on pace with the 5-year average of 11%.

Corn
Corn futures are still trending sharply higher, but recent technical action is giving the charts a toppy appearance. Resistance is at the new contract highs, which is $7.55 for December. The two major factors in the market are the war in Ukraine and U.S. planting progress. Nationwide, farmers have seeded 7% of the crop compared with a 5-year average of 15%. Time is not critical yet, and farmers can plant the crop quickly with even a small window, but there are already reports of farmers exchanging corn seed for soybean seed. Nationwide, the crop is only expected to be down 4% from last year, with total acres pegged at 89.49 million, but if the weather doesn’t cooperate, it could be even smaller, as that is based upon a survey done in early March.

Rice
Rice futures posted huge key reversal after moving to new contract highs last week. While the charts do look bearish, there has been little follow-through selling at this point. July needs to close above that high of $17.31 ½ to negate the bearish technical signal, while September needs to close above $17. Rice acres in the state are currently pegged at 1.191 million, of which 1.080 million are expected to be long grain, with 110,000 acres of medium grain. That is down 2% from last year’s crop. The U.S. crop is expected to be 3% smaller. However, slow planting progress could result in an even smaller crop than anticipated. As of April 24, Arkansas farmers had only seeded 14% of the crop, compared with 41% a year ago and a 5-year average of 48%. With the final planting date for crop insurance coverage coming quickly, farmers will be faced with tough decisions in the next couple of weeks.

Soybeans
November beans continue to trend higher but are capped by resistance at the contract high of $15.55. 2022 is projected to be a record-setter for soybean production. The U.S. crop is pegged at almost 91 million acres, up 4% from last year. In Arkansas, farmers are expected to seed 3.25 million acres to soybeans. That’s 7% more acres than in 2021. Planting delays in corn are bearish for soybeans, as the current weather makes it likely that the size of the soybean crop will be even larger than current projections.