USDA UNVEILS FIRST 2022 CROP ESTIMATES AT ANNUAL OUTLOOK CONFERENCE
On Thursday, Feb. 23, at the Annual Outlook Conference, USDA unveiled their first look at 2022 agricultural production. USDA/NASS will conduct their first survey of producers in early March, and those findings will be released in the Prospective Plantings report on March 31, 2022.

• Total wheat acreage is estimated to be 48 million acres, and total production is projected to be 18% higher than 21/22 at 1.940 billion bushels. The increase in production is projected to outpace an increase in use, resulting in higher ending stocks. The projected season-average farm price for 22/23 is projected to be down 50 cents from last year at $6.80/bushel.
• Corn acres for 22/23 are estimated to be 92 million, down from 93.4 million in 21/22. Shifts in relative prices and higher input costs support the estimate for a year-to-year decline in corn plantings. However, a return to trendline yields results in a record-setting estimate of total production of 15.240 billion bushels. Forecasts for greater domestic use, lower exports and higher ending stocks result in a season-average farm price of $5.00 per bushel, down 45 cents from the previous year.
• Soybean acres are expected to come in at 88 million, up from 87.2 million acres in 21/22. Strong crush demand and the current drought in South America has resulted in favorable new-crop pricing opportunities for producers and potentially pull acreage away from other crops. Production is projected to be 4.5 billion bushels, up 1% from last year. Ending stocks for 22/23 are projected at 305 million bushels, down 20 million from the 21/22 forecast. The season-average on farm price is pegged at $12.75/bushel.
• Total 2022 rice planted acreage is up nearly 3% from last year at 2.6 million acres, mostly due to increases in medium and short grain production.  Forecasts for high prices for alternative crops and substantial increases in prices for inputs like fertilizer and diesel, will limit expansion. The average all-rice yield is unchanged from last year’s record yield of 7,709 lbs/acre. The all-rice season average on-farm price is forecast to increase 40 cents per cwt. to $16.10.
• The early USDA projection for 2022 U.S. cotton plantings is a 3-year high 12.7 million acres, up 13% from 21/22’s 11.2 million acres. The National Cotton Council annual production survey, which was released earlier in the month shows farmers planning to seed just over 12 million acres. Based upon their 12.7 million-acre estimate and a national average yield of 856/lbs per harvested acre, USDA is projecting a total crop of 18.2 million bales. US cotton ending stocks are projected marginally higher in 22/23 at 3.6 million bales. The average on-farm price for 22/23 is pegged at 80 cents/lb, down 10 cents/lb from the 21/22 price.
• Slow growth in dairy production is expected to persist in 2022. The January 1, 2022, inventory survey revealed a total of 9.375 million milk cows, down 0.7% from the same date a year ago. Expectations are for continued, moderate decline in numbers through 2022, for an annual average of 9.36 million head, down 88,000 head from the 2021 average. The ratio of dairy heifers expected to calve to milk cows was 47.5%, the lowest since 2009, and down from 48.8% in 2021. Producers will continue to face higher production costs, as feed, freight, fuel, fertilizer, rents and other input costs squeeze margins.
• The cattle inventory continued to contract in 2021. The January 1, 2022, inventory report showed 91.9 million head, down 2% from the same date last year. The beef cow herd was estimated at 30.1 million head, down 2% from a year ago. The 2021 calf crop was down 1% at 35.1 million head. The inventory is projected to decline further in 2022. Commercial beef production for 2022 is forecast to fall by 2% to 27.38 billion pounds. The 5-Area steer price for 2022 is forecast to average $137.50/cwt, $15/cwt above 2021’s average. Feeder steer prices for 750-800 lb. calves in 2022 is forecast to average $161/cwt, up from $146.95 in 2021.
• The hog sector also contracted in 2021, with the December 1 report showing an inventory of 74.2 million head, down 4% from the prior year and the smallest December 1 inventory since 2017. Carcass weights are forecast to increase, offsetting smaller numbers to some degree. Commercial pork production is forecast at 27.38 billion pounds, about 1% lower than 2021. National base 51%-52% lean hog prices, live equivalent, are forecast to average $65/cwt for 2022, down from last year’s $67.29.
• Broiler meat production is forecast just over 1% higher for a record of 45.49 billion pounds. The National Composite wholesale broiler price is forecast to average a record $1.13/lb in 2022, compared with an average of $1.02 in 2021.