Livestock and Poultry
In the September Supply/Demand report, USDA lowered the forecast for 2021 red meat and poultry from the August report. Lower steer and heifer slaughter and lighter carcass weights contributed to the decline. The pork production forecast was also reduced. Recent hatchery and slaughter data resulted in an increase in the broiler production forecast. The total red meat and poultry forecast for 2022 was also reduced. Increases in forecasts for broiler and turkey production were offset by forecasts for lower beef production.

Fed cattle prices were raised for 2021 on current price strength and firm demand. The 2022 price forecast was also raised. The 2021 hog price forecast was raised on lower expected production. Broiler and turkey price forecasts were raised for both 2021 and 2022 on expectations for strong demand.

Dairy
Milk production forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were reduced from last month on smaller dairy cow numbers and lower milk per cow. For 2021, the fat basis import forecast was unchanged from the previous month, while the fat basis export forecast was raised on strong demand for cheese, butter, and milk fat. The skim-solids basis import forecast for 2021 is unchanged from last month, but the export forecast is raised on firm global demand for skim milk powder, cheese, and whey.

For 2021 and 2022, butter, cheese, and nonfat dry milk price forecasts were raised on improving demand and lower production. The whey price forecast is unchanged for both years. The 2021 and 2022 Class III and Class IV price forecasts are raised from last month on higher dairy product prices. The 2021 all milk price is forecast higher at $18.15 per cwt. The all milk price forecast for 2022 is $18.40 per cwt.

Corn
December corn futures posted a huge upward reversal on Friday and continue to move higher. Friday’s low of $4.97 ½ will provide support. The upside has been limited by harvest pressure and concern about moving the crop down the Mississippi river and through the Gulf in the wake of Hurricane Ida. Weekly export sales were disappointing at just 9.8 million bushels. Weekly export shipments were only 7.6 million bushels as Gulf ports are not yet up and running.

In the September WASDE report, USDA increased the corn acreage estimate by 600,000 acres to 93.3 million. The yield estimate was also increased to 176.3 bushels per acre, up 2.3 bushels from the August estimate.

Cotton
USDA did indeed raise the cotton production estimate for 2021, thanks to significantly improved crop conditions when compared with recent years. Planted acreage was revised downward to 11.19 million, down 7.5% from the 2020 crop. A 5% increase in the estimated yield to 895 lbs. per acre, brings the production estimate to 18.5 million bales, up 26.7% from 2020, and up 7.24% from the August estimate. Domestic use estimates remained unchanged from the August report at 2.5 million bales, but exports increased 500,000 bales to 15.5 million bales. The net result was an increase in ending stocks to 3.7 million bales, up 17% from the 2020 crop. December futures continue to test support at 92 cents and have resistance at 95 cents.

Soybeans
USDA cut their soybean acreage estimate in the September report by 400,000 acres. That means soybean acres are now pegged at 87.2 million acres. The yield estimate was also increased to 50.6 bushels per acre. If realized, this would tie 2018 for the all-time highest average yield on record. That means the total production estimate is 4.3 billion bushels, up 5.8% compared to 2020. The estimated average on farm price was pegged at $12.90/bushel.

Rice
USDA has decreased their harvested acreage estimate, offsetting a 79 pounds per acre increase in the average yield. If realized, an average yield of 7,623 pounds per acre would be the 3^rd highest yield on record. Total production is now pegged at 190.5 million cwt, down 6.9 million cwt from the August report.  Weekly export sales were uninspiring at 31,400 metric tons, but shipments were stronger at 83,100 metric tons. November futures have support at $13.20 and resistance at $13.90.