Livestock and Poultry
The forecast for 2021 red meat and poultry production was raised from the previous month in the November Supply/Demand report. Beef production was raised on higher expected slaughter rates and heavier carcass weights. Pork production is expected to increase as heavier carcass weights more than offset a smaller slaughter total. The broiler production forecast was raised on recent hatchery and slaughter data. The egg production forecast was raised on recent production data and higher expected table egg production in the 4^th quarter. 

For 2022, the total red meat and poultry forecast was raised from last month. Beef and turkey production forecasts were raised, while pork and broiler production forecasts were unchanged from last month. 

Cattle price forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were raised on continued firm demand. The hog price forecast was reduced for fourth-quarter 2021 on recent price weakness, and the annual price forecast was lowered. The 2021 and 2022 broiler and turkey price forecasts were raised from previous month on current prices and expected strength in demand. 

Dairy
In the November supply/demand report, the milk production forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were reduced from the previous month on lower expected dairy cow numbers and slower growth in milk per cow. Fat basis import forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were reduced on lower expected imports of butterfat products. Fat basis export forecasts for 2021 and 2022 were raised on higher expected exports of cheese and butterfat products. 

Butter, nonfat dry milk, and whey price forecasts for 2021 were raised from last month on strength in demand and lower expected production. The cheese price forecast for 2021 is reduced on current prices and continued large supplies. The 2021 Class III price forecast is reduced from last month as the lower forecast cheese price more than offsets the higher whey price. The Class IV price forecast was raised on higher NDM and butter prices. The 2021 all-milk price forecast was raised to $18.50 per cwt. The all-milk price for 2022 was raised to $20.25 per cwt  

Rice
USDA is now forecasting record rice yields across the country, with the national average yield pegged at 7,756 pounds per acre. Arkansas, California, Missouri, and Mississippi are all forecast to set a new record. Total production is now pegged at 193.8 million cwt, up 3.3 million since the previous report. The increase in production was partially offset by a 1 million cwt decrease in the import forecast, but exports were also reduced by 1 million cwt as sales and shipments have been disappointing. Domestic and residual use was increased 1.5 million cwt.  Projected 21/22 all-rice ending stocks were raised 1.8 million cwt to 35 million, which is down 20% from last year. The projected 21/22 all rice season-average farm price was unchanged at $14.80. 

Soybeans
The outlook for soybeans for 21/22 is for lower production and exports and higher ending stocks. Soybean production was pegged at 4.42 billion bushels, down 23 million bushels on lower yields, specifically in Indiana, Iowa, Ohio and Kansas. The export forecast was also lowered this month to reflect the slower pace of shipments so far this marketing year. The net result of the report was a 20 million bushel increase in the ending stocks estimate—which is now expected to be 340 million bushels.  The U.S. season-average price for 21/22 is now pegged at $12.10, down 25 cents from the previous report. 

Cotton
The cotton balance sheet was mostly unchanged in the November report. U.S. production was raised to 18.2 million bales, while domestic mill use and exports were unchanged. U.S. ending stocks are pegged at 34 million bales, up 200,000 bales from the previous report. The on-farm average prices was unchanged at 90 cents/pound. That’s a 36% increase from 2020.