Cattle futures have continued to recover after huge losses on the first day of June. Improving cash markets and declining corn futures have provided underlying support. The October live contract has resistance at the recent high of $130.48, and the market has traded in wide ranges this week as the market struggles to establish some support. This week’s low of $125.85 could provide the first level of support. The monthly Cattle-on-Feed report is expected to show June feedlot placements slightly below last year as analysts forecast a tightening cattle supply during the second half of 2021.
The long-term uptrend in the hog market appears to have run its course. Futures have fallen to nearly 2-month lows after trending higher for the past 6 months. The market appears to have put in a major high earlier this month and October has broken through long-term trendlines. Wholesale pork prices have declined, adding selling pressure to the market. The quarterly Hogs and Pigs report showed an inventory down 3% from a year ago, but up 1% from the previous report. The October contract is testing support below $81.
Technically, September futures appear to have charted a double bottom at $12.50 last week and have rallied sharply, although buying interest ran out at $14 and prices have backed off that level. The market may be looking ahead to next week’s release of the acreage report, which is expected to show a reduced acreage total from the March planting intentions report. USDA now says 69% of the Arkansas crop is in good to excellent condition, which is mostly favorable although there has been extensive damage in southern Arkansas. Weekly exports of 78,000 metric tons were solid although shipments were down over 30% from the 4-week average.
Corn futures have been volatile in recent days as the market focuses on weather and looks ahead to the June 30 acreage report. 65% of the crop is currently rated good to excellent, and that number continues to decline. However, beneficial rains are forecast for next week and that could alleviate some of the drought conditions that threaten the yield potential of the crop. December is testing chart support at $5.20, and failure to hold there could result in a retest of the $5 level.
Soybean futures have broken out of their uptrend and November is testing support at $12.40. 63% of the crop in Arkansas is in good to excellent condition according to the USDA. Recent flooding, however, will likely change those ratings. Beneficial rains are forecast for large sections of the corn belt, which could alleviate drought pressure. Strength in soy oil was a big driver of the rally, and recent weakness in that market is adding selling pressure to soybean futures.