Soybeans
Soybeans have had four weeks of steady gains that saw $2 added to March futures. Relatively tight supplies and strong demand have led to forecasts for very tight ending stocks. Weekly export sales of just 37,000 metric tons for 20-21 and 79,800 metric tons for 21-22, however, resulted in weakness on Thursday. Those low totals are a sharp contrast to last week’s total of over 1 million metric tons for both marketing years combined and average trade estimates of 400,000-800,000 metric tons, and likely a result of what is now being called “demand rationing” as prices have climbed higher. Investors have so far ignored the chaos in Washington, D.C. and commodity markets have received some carryover support from record highs in the Dow and S&P this week. March will have resistance at Wednesday’s high of $13.78 ¼.

Corn
March corn futures have gained approximately 90 cents in the past four weeks. The sharp uptrend has been supported by a weaker dollar and strong export sales. This week, USDA reports 748,900 metric tons sold for export. That’s down from 965,000 metric tons last week, but still respectable and within the average trade guesses. Corn for ethanol use continues to lag behind the pace needed to meet USDA projections. The March contract needs to close above $5 to suggest further gains are possible, and the market will likely need some new bullish news to accomplish it. The bulls will be looking to next Tuesday’s USDA reports to provide that news, but spectators hold record long positions so there is a big potential for profit-taking.

Rice
Rice futures have seen wild swings in prices with the March contract trading as low as $12.29 ½, (which does appear to be a double-bottom), to as high as $13.01 ½ (likely a spike-high) in the past 8 sessions. The charts would indicate it is likely for the market to settle down somewhat within that 70-cent trading range. Weekly export sales were disappointing at only 38,400 metric tons. Shipments were down 22% from the 4-week average, but still an impressive 102,700 metric tons.

Cotton
Cotton futures are trading at contract-high levels in many contracts. The U.S. dollar index is at 2+ year lows, and that has provided support, as has stock market strength, with both the Dow and the S&P setting new all-time highs this week. The market is technically overbought but currently there aren’t any fundamental indications the rally is over. Weekly exports were 153,000 bales, which is down 60% from the four-week average.

Cattle
Live cattle futures are trading at or near contract-high levels, while feeders are under some pressure due to strength in corn prices. Packer margins remain strong and stock market strength is also supportive for live futures.  The nearby February contract has resistance above $116, while the deferred October contract set a new high of $118.42 on Thursday. March feeders this week closed a chart gap between $$135.02 and $135.07, and are building support in that area. Further weakness would suggest a retest of the $136.45 area.

Hogs
Nearby hog futures charts have taken on a bearish appearance. The February contract once again failed at resistance at $72 on Monday and then charted a huge bearish reversal on Wednesday. This suggest a significant high has been put in and the market will continue to see weakness. There isn’t a lot of technical support above $63. However, the bulls are still driving the deferred contracts, with October trending higher and setting a new contract high on Thursday.