Market Briefs for Feb. 4, 2020
Corn
Corn futures remain near recent highs. However, there is beginning to be speculation that the market is making a top, and that has spurred some selling interest. Strong export demand has been supportive, with big sales to China, Mexico and Japan reported in the past two weeks. Ethanol production continues to lag while stocks continue to build. March futures have continued to see strength, with resistance now at the recent high of $5.55 ¾. New crop December futures have resistance at the recent high of $4.65 ½.
Soybeans
Soybean futures are looking like a top has been put in for the time being. Mostly favorable weather in South America has been somewhat negative for the market, as has a lack of fresh demand news. On the futures charts, the trend is solidly higher. Old crop March looks to have found resistance between $14.35 and $14.36. The November contract has so far been unable to close above resistance at $12, but has found support at $11 for the time being. The market is competing with corn for acres, but the prospect for a big crop in 2021 is limiting the upside to some degree.
Rice
Rice futures sold off hard on Wednesday. The weakness was likely a reaction to the results of an Iraqi tender. Pakistan was the low bidder, and the only U.S. bid was not competitive. Nearby March traded as low as $12.76 ½ before closing near the middle of the day’s trading range at $13.09. The contract high of $13.50 will likely provide very though resistance on a rebound.
Cotton
Cotton futures continue to show strength. Technically, the March chart is still solid and prices are trading at 2 ½ year highs on a front-month basis, although we have seen some profit taking and technical selling this week after failing to move above the contract high of 83.06 cents set on January 21. New crop December charted a bullish outside day on Tuesday and looks poised to test resistance at the contract high of 79.20 cents. From a fundamental perspective, the market is being supported by strong demand, especially from China.
Cattle
Live cattle futures saw some very negative chart signals, with nearby contracts charting huge bearish key reversals last Friday. However, follow through selling has not materialized. April will have tough resistance at the contract high of $123.90, which was the top of that key reversal. October futures have resistance at the recent high of $122.25. The March feeders chart also looks worrisome, but so far the market has found support below $136. Additional support is at $132.67.
Hogs
Hog futures continue to recover, with June futures breaking out to a new contract high on Wednesday. Trading has been somewhat volatile, but support is building just below $87. The cash hog market is firm as winter weather is disrupting hog movement in parts of the Midwest.