Cattle
October live cattle futures have been moving lower after finding resistance near $130 and failing to challenge the contract high of $130.48, but the market bounced off resistance at $127 early in the week and have turned higher again. On the fundamental side, a bullish Cattle on Feed report also provided support. Placements were pegged at 92.9% of a year ago, well below the average trade guess. Total cattle on feed were 98.7% of a year ago, and marketings were 102.7% of last year’s total.

October feeders have run out of buying interest above $167 after a sharp rally. A correction could see the market close the gap between $161.30 and $161.67 ½.

Hogs
Tight hog supplies, strong wholesale pork prices and futures’ discount to cash prices are all supportive fundamental factors. High feed costs and high building costs are preventing farmers from expanding herds. Last week’s slaughter was estimated to be 9.5% below a year earlier and production down 10.1% as hog weights are running below last year as well. October futures have retraced recent losses, but will have resistance at $94 on further strength.

Rice
September rice futures posted a new 5-week high in reaction to the announcement of an 80,000 ton sale of U.S. rice to Iraq-the first sale to that country in 2 years. The strength was short-lived, though, as crop conditions are generally favorable. USDA says that 72% of the U.S. rice crop is in good to excellent condition. In Arkansas, that total is 66%. Questions remain regarding both the size and condition of the crop in Arkansas, but the August production report could give the market some direction. The September contract has posted sharp losses this week and could be headed for a retest of support at $13.

Cotton
December cotton futures have recovered from recent losses and surpassed previous resistance at 90 cents. Futures are now attempting to move above 91 cents, but so far, buying interest has not materialized. Solid export demand and a firmer stock market have been supportive. 60% of the U.S. crop is rated good to excellent. This week a year ago, that total was only 49%. That difference mostly reflects the more favorable conditions in Texas, which has seen cooler temps and more precipitation that usual early this summer.

Corn
December corn futures have been chopping along mostly sideways and appear to be building support around $5.40. USDA has rated 62% the crop good to excellent this week. That’s down 2
points from last week. Hot, dry forecasts for much of the Corn Belt are not favorable, however, and crop stress could increase quickly. USDA has pegged production at a record-setting 151.165 billion bushels, and trade has been light for a few weeks as traders work to get a better understanding of just how big this crop will actually be. The August production report is coming up next week, so expect the market to be focused on position evening ahead of that in the coming days.

Soybeans
December soybeans have violated the up-trend drawn off the June low, giving the chart picture a bearish appearance. The next level of support is at $13. The soybean market is also watching the weather carefully and trading volume has been relatively low amid uncertainty about the U.S. crop. The potential for a hot, dry August could increase crop stress and hurt yield potential.