Cattle
A large back-up of market ready cattle due to plant closures now looms over the market, and it could take months to work through the excess supplies. Daily slaughter totals are climbing, but still well below year-ago levels. Moderate activity in cash trade is providing some support. June has now moved above resistance at $100, which could spur additional technical buying. October live futures need to close above resistance at $105. August feeders have resistance at $138.80.

Hogs
Plant closures due to Covid-19 have significantly reduced hog slaughter capacity in the U.S. Daily slaughter totals are improving, but are still not back to year-ago levels.  Recent losses in pork cutout values have also limited packer demand. Renewed tensions with China and the potential for the U.S. to increase sanctions and tariffs is adding downward pressure. The July contract is currently holding above support at $55.35. October has support at the contract low of $48.

Corn
Corn futures are trending sideways and consolidating into an increasingly narrow trading range.  Expectations for a huge crop this year (currently estimated at a record high of 16 billion bushels) and record-high ethanol stocks will continue to loom over the market, limiting upside potential. The crop is off to a favorable start and is now 91% planted nation-wide, compared with a 5-year average of 75%.  Ethanol production continues to recover, but is still well behind last-year’s totals. Ethanol stocks are estimated to be shrinking, but stocks are still burdensome considering demand. December futures are consolidating between resistance at $3.40 and support at $3.30.

Soybeans
Soybeans continue to trend mostly sideways. November is consolidating between support at $8.40 and resistance at $8.60. The low of $8.31 looks like solid support for November for now. The May supply/demand report projected a 4.125 billion bushel crop, up 568 million bushels from last year. Global demand is expected to increase next year, and the U.S. is projected to capture 34% of the world soybean trade. Ending stocks are projected to decrease by 175 million bushels from 19/20 to 20/21. However, the average on-farm price is also expected to decrease, pegged at $8.20/bushel, down 30 cents from 19/20.

Rice
Rice futures continue to see wide daily trading ranges and a big divergence between old crop and new crop prices. Old crop July continues to trade near the top of the chart, with resistance now at the recent contract high of $16.54 ½. New crop September has surged this week, closing above previous resistance at $12, which opens the possibility of a retest of resistance between $12.20 and $12.25. Some of that new-crop strength comes at the expense of farmers who are struggling to plant their crop. Arkansas farmers have now seeded 85% of intended acres, compared with a 5-year average of 93%. The crop insurance final plant date has now come and gone and producers are now faced with the decision to plant late or alter their plans.

Cotton
Cotton futures are trending mostly sideways with December consolidating between resistance at the recent high of 59.50 cents and support just above 54 cents. Renewed tensions between the U.S. and China as the U.S. announces that Hong Kong is no longer autonomous is bad news for cotton.  U.S. exports to China have been the bright spot in the market as India is undercutting U.S. exports throughout the rest of the world. The possibility of new sanctions and tariffs on China could significantly impact cotton exports.