Cotton
Renewed selling has hit cotton futures, resulting in new 11-year lows. USDA released their Prospective Plantings report this week, showing 2020 planting intentions virtually unchanged from 2019 at 13.5 million acres of upland cotton (590,000 in Arkansas) and 228,000 acres of ELS. In February, the National Cotton Council survey indicated producers intended to plant only 12.8 million acres of upland cotton, and 224,000 acres of ELS. With current price levels, one would assume that the NCC estimate is closer to correct, and that it is highly likely actual planted acres will be below the estimates of both surveys. Crude oil is trading at an 18-year low at this point, meaning that synthetics will remain a very cheap option for clothing manufacturers and will continue to pressure cotton prices. Shelter in place orders have resulted in mill closures around the world, which will impact demand for cotton, potentially resulting in an increase in the ending stocks number for the 19/20 marketing year.

Cattle
Cattle futures have been hit hard again as it becomes evident that the covid-19 pandemic will continue and it will still be several weeks at a minimum before things return to normal. Beef is highly favored in restaurants, and that demand is all but gone. Wholesale beef prices have fallen dramatically this week, and while packer margins are shrinking as a result, they are still very large. Technically, June live futures have established tough resistance at $100, but for now support remains at the contract low of $85.25, which was tested twice in March, resulting in a double-bottom, a good technical signal of longer-term support.

Hogs
After a brief attempt to stabilize, hog futures have been hit with a new round of selling. Cutout values continue to decline, and traders are worried about the potential for plant closures if employees test positive for coronavirus. There is little technical support to find on the charts, as prices have set a new low on an almost daily basis.

Corn
Corn futures have been hit with a double whammy (highly technical marketing term) this week, and new crop December has moved to new lows as a result. First, the USDA prospective plantings report estimated acreage up 8% from last year at 97 million acres. Then, new data showed that ethanol stocks are now at a record high of 25.7 million barrels. This makes it very unlikely that corn demand will be able to keep up the pace needed to reach USDA’s current usage numbers and will likely result in even larger ending stocks than currently projected. May futures have support at the recent low of $3.32. If that support fails, then the 2016 low of $3.01 becomes the next downside objective. December futures have broken out of a bear-flag formation on the chart and now have a downside objective of $3.39.

Soybeans
Soybean futures are under pressure from the prospective plantings report released on Tuesday. The crop is pegged at up 10% from a year ago at 83.5 million acres. Arkansas farmers reported they intend to plant 2.9 million acres, up 9%. These numbers are not a total shock to the market, but the potential for a huge crop is certainly bearish for prices. Old crop beans are under pressure from weakness in the Brazilian Real, which will result in their beans being significantly more competitive in export markets. Both July and November have very tough resistance at the chart gap at $9, and really no obvious support above the recent contract lows, which is $8.30 for July and $8.36 for November.

Rice
USDA this week pegged rice acres at 2.847 million acres, up 12% from a year ago. For Arkansas, that total was 1.19 million acres of long grain and 206,000 acres of medium/short grain, for a total acreage of 1.396 million, up 21% from last year. Considering the current price of rice relative to other crops, we will likely see that number increase, with Arkansas farmers potentially seeding over 1.5 million acres. A lot will, of course, depend on the weather, and the current forecast is for a warm, wet spring. July futures continue to test resistance around $14, while new crop futures are testing the waters around $12.