Argentine peso hits record low
Argentina's peso has fallen to a record low, tumbling almost 7 percent to 25 per U.S. dollar. The International Monetary Fund said it won't set any exchange-rate targets for a stand-by arrangement. That pushes the currency's decline this year to 26 percent, the worst in emerging markets. President Mauricio Macri spoke by phone with President Donald Trump and said the U.S. supported his discussions with the IMF.

U.S. and Japan moving toward a trade deal
Japan and the U.S. are moving toward an agreement on bilateral trade, U.S. Ambassador to Japan William Hagerty said at the Wall Street Journal CEO Council meeting in Tokyo, noting an American trade delegation visited Tokyo this week. Hagerty provided no details or a timeframe for a deal, but said U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Toshimitsu Motegi, Japan’s economy minister, were making “great advances.”

Spending bill mandates USDA oversight of lab-grown meat
The fiscal year 2019 agriculture appropriations bill to be considered this week includes a provision that calls for USDA oversight of lab-grown meats.

Food labeling
USDA recently proposed new guidelines for labeling foods that contain bioengineered (BE) ingredients. Food makers will be required by federal law to use the labels, starting in 2020. The public has until July 3 to comment on the proposed guidelines.

U.S. and China trade talks
The Trump administration is working to protect the agricultural industry regarding trade issues with China both via direct talks with Beijing and the use of government support, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said last week. Ross told members of a Senate Appropriations subcommittee that agriculture "featured quite prominently" in recent trade discussions with the Chinese delegation in Beijing.

Sonny Perdue might back export RINs
Trump directed USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue and EPA Administrator Scott Pruitt to review an option that would allow exported ethanol to qualify for biofuel credits/RINs. Perdue said he could support the option if EPA offsets the impact of waivers from the RFS that increasingly have been provided to refiners. “We are fine with that as long as the previously waived gallons that took us down below 14 billion gallons be reallocated” in future mandates to get domestic ethanol usage to the 15 billion gallons required by law, he said. Refiners, meanwhile, could head to the courts to block the vapor pressure waiver necessary to allow year-around sales of E15.

China’s soybean imports expected to dip
China’s ag ministry says that 2018-19 will mark the first time in 15 years that China will cut its soybean imports. It calls for soybean imports to fall 0.3 percent to 95.65 MMT. Rising soymeal prices in the midst of a U.S. and China trade dispute has the nation’s pig farmers on the hunt for cheaper proteins, especially since hog prices are at multi-year lows. Also playing into this, the country is working to boost its ethanol production and use, which is in turn increasing supplies of dried distillers grain (DDGs). The ministry also expects a 4.9 percent rise in Chinese bean production to 15.27 MMT in 2018-19, with the launch of an “emergency” campaign helping to prop up plantings.

USDA halts efforts for organic checkoff
The U.S. Department of Agriculture, citing lack of interest from growers, has put an end to a campaign for a national research and promotion program for organic produce and other products.  The measure, backed by the Organic Trade Association, would have assessed producers to pay for the program, raising at least $30 million a year. When the OTA officially petitioned the USDA three years ago for the program, it cited a survey showing a 2-to-1 margin of support for the issue.

USDA 2018-19 forecast for rice and cotton
The 2018-19 outlook for U.S. rice is for higher supplies, exports, domestic use, and ending stocks. All rice production in the U.S. is projected at 203.2 million cwt, up 14 percent from the previous year, primarily on a larger expected long-grain crop. U.S. 2018-19 total use is projected at 223.0 million cwt, up 3 percent from 2017-18 with both domestic and residual use and exports higher. Long-grain exports are projected up 4 percent to 72.0 million cwt on improved price competitiveness with increased exportable supplies. All rice ending stocks are projected at 40.5 million cwt, up 18 percent from 2017-18 with most of the increase for long-grain. The 2018-19 global rice outlook is for record-high production, consumption, and trade. World 2018-19 ending stocks are projected at 144.7 million tons, up marginally from 2017-18. China is projected to hold the majority of stocks at 67 percent of the total.

The 2018-19 outlook for U.S. cotton is for smaller production, unchanged exports, and slightly higher ending stocks. Domestic mill use in 2018-19 is projected slightly higher at 3.4 million bales, while exports are expected to remain unchanged at 15.5 million. At 5.2 million bales, 2018-19 ending stocks are projected 500,000 bales higher than the year before, and equivalent to 28 percent of total use. The world 2018-19 cotton projections show a decline in stocks of 4.5 million bales, as consumption once again exceeds production.