Market Briefs for February 21, 2018
Agreement reached on Section 199A
An agreement to alter the language of Section 199A tax provision contained in the tax reform law has been made, according to Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa). Current language gives growers a tax incentive to sell to agricultural cooperatives. “I think it’s reached the point where, if there isn’t a complete agreement, there’s enough agreement within the Congress that if we can do what we originally intended to do — maintaining the status quo for co-ops — we’re going to go ahead and do it, even if the co-ops aren’t completely satisfied,” Grassley says, adding, “It would not disadvantage private elevators like they have been since Christmas.” He says the 199A provision should go back to the way it was prior to passage of the tax reform bill late last year and that the change will be retroactive to the start of the year. Grassley also predicts the 199A fix will be attached to the omnibus appropriations bill, due by March 23.
Projections for Brazil’s bean crop
Brazil’s soybean crop will likely total a record-high 115.6 MMT, according to Safras & Mercado’s updated crop estimate. This represents a 1.7 MMT increase from the consultancy’s December crop estimate, as it says that better yields in Goias, Mato Grosso do Sul, Minas Gerais and Sao Paulo have upped its crop expectations. Safras expects Brazil’s corn crop to come in at 89.46 MMT, down 17 percent from last year. It expects plantings to drop 11 percent and for yields to decline as well.
China may retaliate agsainst metal tariff
Last week, the U.S. Commerce Department laid out several options for President Donald Trump to consider regarding steel and aluminum trade, including at least a 24- percent tariff on steel from all countries. The president has until April 11 and April 19 to make a decision on these reports. If these safeguards are implemented, China could consider retaliation by imposing restrictions on U.S. agricultural products. In the last year China has adopted new rules in regards to GMO and foreign materials. These new rules could be used to reject shipments, which would adversely affect U.S. farmers.
Slow CPTPP ratification for Canada
The signing date for the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) is slated for March 8 in Chile. The CPTPP comes into force once six of its 11 members have ratified the agreement. It is likely the Canadian government will not introduce a bill to implement CPTTP until the fall, which raises concern in Canada that a slow Canadian ratification process could allow other members’ exporters to benefit from new market access before Canadian exporters can.
U.S. immigration reform not dead
Washington analysts said last week’s Senate fumbles on getting an immigration reform bill approved means the end of that process for this year. Others think Trump could still move the process along if he listens to himself rather than arch conservatives in the White House. If Trump does not alter his current stance on various bills, some senators have raised the possibility of pairing a simple provision protecting the Dreamers from deportation with funding for the president’s proposed wall at the southern border with Mexico and slipping that package into a large spending bill that must pass in late March.
Argentina’s drought damage
Fifty-eight percent of Argentina’s corn crop has been damaged by drought along with 56 percent of its soybean crop, estimates the Buenos Aires Grains Exchange. The exchange detailed that while there were rains of “varying intensity in different parts of the country” last week, the rains were “not enough to make up for the moisture deficit.” Nevertheless, the exchange made no change to its soybean or corn crop estimates that stand at 50 MMT and 39 MMT, respectively.
CFTC analyzing RINs market
EPA previously asked the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to help in analyzing concerns about speculation in the market for biofuel credits, or RINs. CFTC didn’t find any evidence of fraud. However, CFTC Chairman J. Chris Giancarlo told the Senate Agriculture Committee that the EPA data wasn’t of sufficient quality to properly assess the fairness of the market. CFTC agreed to have its economists do additional analysis to analyze the RINs market at the request of USDA Secretary Sonny Perdue, Giancarlo said.
Nebraska is top beef exporter in U.S.
Nebraska exported $1.26 billion worth of beef in 2017, according to USDA’s Global Ag Trade System, making the state the nation’s top beef exporter for the second year in a row. Nebraska’s governor credited the state’s abundant feed grain, packing capacity and cattle feeding operations for putting the cornhusker state in the top slot. The state is also seeing strong growth in pork shipments, exporting $479 million worth of the product in 2017, a 20 percent surge from the year prior. Nebraska is the country’s fifth largest pork exporter.